How you will die

Nobody can predit your personal cause of death with certainty, and anyone who claims to be able to is either a charlatan or a fool. However, by looking at statistics, we can observe how other people like you have died. Given you are probably reading this from a first-world country, and I am writing this from Australia, for the meantime we will look at how Australians die. If you are English, or American, or Canadian, that's probably close enough.

Death incidence

This is the number of people who died in Australia in 2021.

Total population: 25,690,000

Total deaths: 171,469 (0.67%)

So what makes you likely to be part of that unlucky 0.67%? Let's take a look.

Causes of death

These are the most common reasons those 171,469 people died.

Causes of death by age and sex

But what if you are a 40-year-old woman, and not a 90-year-old man? You are probably quite unlikely to die from dementia or prostate cancer. Clearly, not all of this information is relevant for every person.

So the next step in personalising our data is to stratify by age and sex.

As you can see, even with a massive sample size of 25 million, risk stratification becomes personalised very quickly.


This is the next logical stratification in our quest to derive personalised risk.


'How you will die'

Lazarus, MD